## Alex Hening : Stochastic persistence and extinction

- Probability,Uploaded Videos ( 1224 Views )A key question in population biology is understanding the conditions under which the species of an ecosystem persist or go extinct. Theoretical and empirical studies have shown that persistence can be facilitated or negated by both biotic interactions and environmental fluctuations. We study the dynamics of n interacting species that live in a stochastic environment. Our models are described by n dimensional piecewise deterministic Markov processes. These are processes (X(t), r(t)) where the vector X denotes the density of the n species and r(t) is a finite state space process which keeps track of the environment. In any fixed environment the process follows the flow given by a system of ordinary differential equations. The randomness comes from the changes or switches in the environment, which happen at random times. We give sharp conditions under which the populations persist as well as conditions under which some populations go extinct exponentially fast. As an example we look at the competitive exclusion principle from ecology, which says in its simplest form that two species competing for one resource cannot coexist, and show how the random switching can facilitate coexistence.

## David Aldous: Probability Seminar

- Probability,Uploaded Videos ( 649 Views )David Aldous, Probability Seminar Sept 30, 2021 TITLE: Can one prove existence of an infectiousness threshold (for a pandemic) in very general models of disease spread? ABSTRACT: Intuitively, in any kind of disease transmission model with an infectiousness parameter, there should exist a critical value of the parameter separating a very likely from a very unlikely resulting pandemic. But even formulating a general conjecture is challenging. In the most simplistic model (SI) of transmission, one can prove this for an essentially arbitrary large weighted contact network. The proof for SI depends on a simple lemma concerning hitting times for increasing set-valued Markov processes. Can one extend to SIR or SIS models over similarly general networks, where the lemma is no longer applicable?

## Oguz Savk : Bridging the gaps between homology planes and Mazur manifolds.

- Geometry and Topology,Uploaded Videos ( 315 Views )We call a non-trivial homology 3-sphere a Kirby-Ramanujam sphere if it bounds a homology plane, an algebraic complex smooth surface with the same homology groups of the complex plane. In this talk, we present several infinite families of Kirby-Ramanujam spheres bounding Mazur type 4-manifolds, compact contractible smooth 4-manifolds built with only 0-, 1-, and 2-handles. Such an interplay between complex surfaces and 4-manifolds was first observed by Ramanujam and Kirby around nineteen-eighties. This is upcoming joint work with Rodolfo Aguilar Aguilar.