public 01:34:42

Johannes Reiter : Minimal intratumoral heterogeneity in untreated cancers

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Genetic intratumoral heterogeneity is a natural consequence of imperfect DNA replication. Any two randomly selected cells, whether normal or cancerous, are therefore genetically different. I will discuss the extent of genetic heterogeneity within untreated cancers with particular regard to its clinical relevance. While genomic heterogeneity within primary tumors is associated with relapse, heterogeneity among treatment‑naïve metastases has not been comprehensively assessed. We analyzed sequencing data for 76 untreated metastases from 20 patients and inferred cancer phylogenies for breast, colorectal, endometrial, gastric, lung, melanoma, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. We found that within individual patients a large majority of driver gene mutations are common to all metastases. Further analysis revealed that the driver gene mutations that were not shared by all metastases are unlikely to have functional consequences. A mathematical model of tumor evolution and metastasis formation provides an explanation for the observed driver gene homogeneity. Last, we found that individual metastatic lesions responded concordantly to targeted therapies in 91% of 44 patients. These data indicate that the cells within the primary tumors that gave rise to metastases are genetically homogeneous with respect to functional driver gene mutations and suggest that future efforts to develop combination therapies have the capacity to be curative.

public 01:34:59

Andrew Brouwer : Harnessing environmental surveillance: mathematical modeling in the fight against polio

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Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-14, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. However, we have lacked the theory to translate environmental surveillance into public health metrics; it is a priori unclear how much environmental surveillance can even say about population-level disease dynamics. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used differential algebra and profile likelihood techniques to perform identifiability analysis, that is, to assess how much information exists in the data for the model, and to quantify inference uncertainty. From the environmental surveillance data, we estimated the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, determining that the outbreak likely happened much faster than previously thought. Our mathematical modeling approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.

public 01:14:46

David Basanta : Computational modeling of bone metastatic prostate cancer

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