## Elliot Cartee : Control-Theoretic Models of Environmental Crime

- Mathematical Biology ( 188 Views )We present two models of perpetrators' decision-making in extracting resources from a protected area. It is assumed that the authorities conduct surveillance to counter the extraction activities, and that perpetrators choose their post-extraction paths to balance the time/hardship of travel against the expected losses from a possible detection. In our first model, the authorities are assumed to use ground patrols and the protected resources are confiscated as soon as the extractor is observed with them. The perpetrators' path-planning is modeled using the optimal control of randomly-terminated process. In our second model, the authorities use aerial patrols, with the apprehension of perpetrators and confiscation of resources delayed until their exit from the protected area. In this case the path-planning is based on multi-objective dynamic programming. Our efficient numerical methods are illustrated on several examples with complicated geometry and terrain of protected areas, non-uniform distribution of protected resources, and spatially non-uniform detection rates due to aerial or ground patrols.

## Michael Mackey : Understanding, treating and avoiding hematological disease

- Mathematical Biology ( 158 Views )This talk will trace many years of work mathematical modeling hematological diseases. The Â?understandÂ? part talks about the use of mathematical to figure out what causes cyclical neutropenia, and the Â?treatÂ? part refers to work on treating cyclical neutropenia using recombinant cytokines. The Â?avoidÂ? part deals with current ongoing work trying to obviate the deleterious effects of chemotherapy on blood cell productionÂ?one of the major negative side effects of chemotherapy.

## Nick Moore : How focused flexibility maximizes the thrust production of flapping wings

- Mathematical Biology ( 154 Views )Birds, insects, and fish all exploit the fact that flexible wings or fins generally perform better than their rigid counterparts. Given the task of designing an optimal wing, though, it is not clear how to best distribute the flexibility: Should the wing be uniformly flexible along its length, or could some advantage be gained by making certain sections more rigid than others? I will discuss this question by using a 2D small-amplitude model for the fluid-structure interaction combined with an efficient Chebyshev PDE solver. Numerical optimization shows that concentrating flexibility near the leading edge of the wing maximizes thrust production, an arrangement that resembles the torsional-joint flexibility mechanism found in insect wings. I will discuss the possibility of extending into three dimensions to address the question of optimal wing architecture more generally.

## Jim Nolen : Sticky limit theorems for statistics in singular spaces.

- Mathematical Biology ( 147 Views )This talk is about extending classical limit theorems of probability (law of large numbers, central limit theorem) to a non-Euclidean setting. I'll talk about new and interesting phenomena observed when sampling independent points from certain singular geometric spaces. The main result is a limit theorem -- the "sticky central limit theorem" -- which applies to the mean or barycenter of a family of independent samples as the number of samples grows. The theorem shows that the geometry of the underlying space may have an interesting effect on the asymptotic fluctuations of the sample means, in a way that does not occur with independent samples in Euclidean space. One motivation for thinking about statistics in singular geometric spaces comes from evolutionary biology; one can consider phylogenetic trees as points in a metric space of the sort discussed in this talk. Apart from this basic motivation, however, the talk will have little biological content and will be mainly about probability.

## Rick Durrett : Branching Process Models of Cancer

- Mathematical Biology ( 145 Views )It is common to use a multitype branching process to model the accumulation of mutations that leads to cancer progression, metastasis, and resistance to treatment. In this talk I will describe results about the time until the first type k (cell with k mutations) and the growth of the type k population obtained in joint work with Stephen Moseley, and their use in evaluating possible screening strategies for ovarian cancer, work in progress with Duke undergraduate Kaveh Danesh. The point process representation of the limit, which is a one-sided stable law, together with results from 10-60 years ago leads to remarkable explicit formulas for Simpson's index and the size of the largest clone. These results are important in understanding tumor diversity which can present serious obstacles to treatment. The last topic is joint work with Jasmine Foo, Kevin Leder, John Mayberry, and Franziska Michor

## Jake Taylor-King : Generalized Jump Processes and Osteocyte Network Formation

- Mathematical Biology ( 141 Views )My talk will have two parts. PART I, From Birds to Bacteria: Generalised Velocity Jump Processes. There are various cases of animal movement where behaviour broadly switches between two modes of operation, corresponding to a long distance movement state and a resting or local movement state. In this talk, I will give a mathematical description of this process, adapted from Friedrich et. al. (2006). The approach allows the specification any running or waiting time distribution along with any angular and speed distributions. The resulting system of partial integro-differential equations are tumultuous and therefore it is necessary to both simplify and derive summary statistics. We derive an expression for the mean squared displacement, which shows good agreement with experimental data from the bacterium Escherichia coli and the gull Larus fuscus. Finally a large time diffusive approximation is considered via a Cattaneo approximation (Hillen, 2004). This leads to the novel result that the effective diffusion constant is dependent on the mean and variance of the running time distribution but only on the mean of the waiting time distribution. We also consider the Levy regime where the variance of the running distribution tends to infinity. This leads to a fractional diffusion equation for superdiffusive Levy walks and can be solved analytically. Our theory opens up new perspectives both for the systematic derivation of such equations, and for experimental data analysis of intermittent motion. I will also briefly discuss recent developments (by other researchers) within the field of velocity jump processes. PART II: Modelling Osteocyte Network Formation: Healthy and Cancerous Environments. Advanced prostate, breast, and lung cancer can metastasize to bone. In pathological bone, the highly regulated bone remodeling signaling pathway is disrupted. Within bone dendritic osteocytes form a spatial network allowing communication between osteocytes and the osteoblasts located on the bone surface. This communication network facilitates coordinated bone formation. In the presence of a cancerous microenvironment, the morphology of this network changes. Commonly osteocytes appear to be either overdifferentiated (i.e., there are more dendrites) or underdeveloped (i.e., dendrites do not fully form). In addition to structural changes, preliminary studies measuring the number of osteocytes per unit area using pathology slides show that the number density of osteocytes change from healthy to metastatic prostate and breast cancer xenografted mice. We present a stochastic agent-based model for bone formation incorporating osteoblasts and osteocytes that allows us to probe both network structure and number density of osteocytes in bone. Our model both allows for the simulation of our spatial network model and analysis of mean-field equations in the form of integro-partial differential equations. We consider variations of our model to test specific physiological hypotheses related to osteoblast differentiation; for example we can predict how changing measurable biological parameters, such as rates of bone secretion, rates of dendrite growth and rates of osteoblast differentiation can allow for qualitatively different network morphologies, and vice versa. We thenuse our model to hypothesize reasons for the limited efficacy of zoledronate therapy on metastatic breast cancer.

## Franziska Michor : Evolutionary dynamics of cancer

- Mathematical Biology ( 135 Views )Cancer emerges due to an evolutionary process in somatic tissue. The fundamental laws of evolution can best be formulated as exact mathematical equations. Therefore, the process of cancer initiation and progression is amenable to mathematical investigation. Of special importance are changes that occur early during malignant transformation because they may result in oncogene addiction and represent promising targets for therapeutic intervention. Here we describe a mathematical approach, called Retracing the Evolutionary Steps in Cancer (RESIC), to deduce the temporal sequence of genetic events during tumorigenesis from crosssectional genomic data of tumors at their fully transformed stage. When applied to a dataset of 70 advanced colorectal cancers, our algorithm accurately predicts the sequence of APC, KRAS, and TP53 mutations previously defined by analyzing tumors at different stages of colon cancer formation. We further validate the method with glioblastoma and leukemia sample data and then apply it to complex integrated genomics databases, finding that high-level EGFR amplification appears to be a late event in primary glioblastomas. RESIC represents the first evolutionary mathematical approach to identify the temporal sequence of mutations driving tumorigenesis and may be useful to guide the validation of candidate genes emerging from cancer genome surveys.

## Marisa Eisenberg : Forecasting and uncertainty in modeling disease dynamics

- Mathematical Biology ( 129 Views )Connecting dynamic models with data to yield predictive results often requires a variety of parameter estimation, identifiability, and uncertainty quantification techniques. These approaches can help to determine what is possible to estimate from a given model and data set, and help guide new data collection. Here, we examine how parameter estimation and disease forecasting are affected when examining disease transmission via multiple types or pathways of transmission. Using examples taken from the West Africa Ebola epidemic, HPV, and cholera, we illustrate some of the potential difficulties in estimating the relative contributions of different transmission pathways, and show how alternative data collection may help resolve this unidentifiability. We also illustrate how even in the presence of large uncertainties in the data and model parameters, it may still be possible to successfully forecast disease dynamics.

## Leonid Berlyand : PDE/ODE models of motility in active biosystems

- Mathematical Biology ( 124 Views )In the first part of the talk we present a review of our work on PDE models of swimming bacteria. First we introduce a stochastic PDE model for a dilute suspension of self-propelled bacteria and obtain an explicit asymptotic formula for the effective viscosity (E.V.) that explains the mechanisms of the drastic reduction of E.V.. Next, we introduce a model for semi-dilute suspensions with pairwise interactions and excluded volume constraints. We compute E.V. analytically (based on a kinetic theory approach) and numerically. Comparison with the dilute case leads to a phenomenon of stochasticity arising from a deterministic system. We develop a ODE/PDE model that captures the phase transition, an appearance of correlations and large scale structures due to interbacterial interactions. Collaborators: S. Ryan, B. Haines, (PSU students); I. Aronson, A. Sokolov, D. Karpeev (Argonne); In the second part of the talk we discuss a system of two parabolic PDEs arising in modeling of motility of eukaryotic cells on substrates. The two key properties of this system are (i) presence of gradients in the coupling terms (gradient coupling) and (ii) mass (volume) preservation constraints. We derive the equation of the motion of the cell boundary, which is the mean curvature motion perturbed by a novel nonlinear term and prove that the sharp interface property of initial conditions is preserved in time. This novel term leads to surprising features of the motion of the interface such as discontinuities of the interface velocity and hysteresis. This is joint work with V. Rybalko and M. Potomkin.

## Joshua Goldwyn : Analysis of stochastic auditory nerve models with applications to cochlear implant psychophysics

- Mathematical Biology ( 120 Views )Cochlear implants are neural prostheses that restore a sense of hearing to individuals with severe to profound deafness. Two fundamental theoretical questions that we face are: How does the auditory nerve respond to electrical stimulation? And how is sound information represented in the spike trains of auditory nerve fibers? We will discuss model-based efforts to investigate these questions. I will focus on the development of reduced models that incorporate essential biological features of this complicated system, and remain useful tools for analyzing neural coding.

Using a point process model of the auditory nerve, I simulate amplitude modulation detection, a common test of temporal resolution. I find that the temporal information in the simulated spike trains does not limit modulation sensitivity in cochlear implant users, and discuss how the point process framework can be extended to include additional biophysical mechanisms. Next, I illustrate how spatial spread of excitation and neural degeneration can lead to of within- and across-patient variability in listening outcomes. This points toward an important goal of computational modeling: to develop patient-specific models that can be used to optimize stimulation strategies for individual cochlear implant users.

## Alex Mogilner : Mathematics and biology of molecular machines: from mitosis to Golgi

- Mathematical Biology ( 110 Views )Prior to cell division, chromosomes are segregated by mitotic spindle. This molecular machine self-assembles remarkably fast and accurately in an elegant process of search and capture, during which dynamic polymers from two centers grow and shrink rapidly and repeatedly until a contact with chromosomes is established. At the same time, the chromosomes interact with each other. I will show computer simulation and experimental microscopy results illustrating how cell deploys a number of redundant mechanisms optimizing the assembly by keeping it accurate yet rapid. Very similar strategies are used to assemble Golgi apparatus. The talk will illustrate how computer modeling assists experiment in unraveling mysteries of cell dynamics.

## Lingchong You : Synthetic Biology: Microbial Communities by Design

- Mathematical Biology ( 105 Views )A major focus of synthetic biology is to engineer gene circuits to perform user-defined functions. These gene circuits can serve as well-defined models to probe basic biological questions of broad significance. In this talk, I will discuss our efforts along this line of research, whereby we have engineered gene circuits to program bacterial dynamics in time and space, guided by quantitative modeling and experiments. Insights learnt from these circuits have implications for developing new strategies to combat bacterial pathogens or to fabricate new materials.

## David Houle : Approaching the evolution of novelty

- Mathematical Biology ( 105 Views )I consider two kinds of biological novelty using shape of the Drosophila wing as a focal phenotype. Quantitative novelty is the evolution of more or less of the same elements already present in the ancestor, or evolution within one topological space. Qualitative novelty is gain of elements not present in the ancestor, or perhaps the loss of such elements, making a transition from one topological space to another. A quantitative genetic approach allows us to studying the major determinants of quantitative novelty, standing genetic variation and mutational variation. I will present measurements of both mutation and standing variation for a multivariate phenotype, the fly wing. Mathematical and statistical challenges in quantitative novelty involve the identification of subspaces within a topological space with genetic variation, and their relationship to the subspaces found in other samples. Qualitative novelty is easy to identify among species, but its evolution is difficult to study, as by definition it is absent in the ancestor. The process of development, where qualitatively different structures are progressively introduced during most life cycles, provides a framework to understand the evolution of novelty. Developmental studies show that continuous changes in gene expression precede transitions to a new shape topology. Gene expression state within a shape is more complex object that shape itself, adding dimensions that may allow us to identify regions of one shape topology that are neighbors to other topologies.

## Sean Lawley : Stochastics in medicine: Delaying menopause and missing drug doses

- Mathematical Biology ( 104 Views )Stochastic modeling and analysis can help answer pressing medical questions. In this talk, I will attempt to justify this claim by describing recent work on two problems in medicine. The first problem concerns ovarian tissue cryopreservation, which is a proven tool to preserve ovarian follicles prior to gonadotoxic treatments. Can this procedure be applied to healthy women to delay or eliminate menopause? How can it be optimized? The second problem concerns medication nonadherence. What should you do if you miss a dose of medication? How can physicians design dosing regimens that are robust to missed/late doses? I will describe (a) how stochastics theory offers insights into these questions and (b) the mathematical questions that emerge from this investigation. The first problem is based on joint work with Joshua Johnson (University of Colorado School of Medicine), John Emerson (Yale University), and Kutluk Oktay (Yale School of Medicine).

## Samuel Isaacson : Spatial Jump Process Models for Estimating Antibody-Antigen Interactions

- Mathematical Biology ( 103 Views )Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) assays are a standard approach for quantifying kinetic parameters in antibody-antigen binding reactions. Classical SPR approaches ignore the bivalent structure of antibodies, and use simplified ODE models to estimate effective reaction rates for such interactions. In this work we develop a new SPR protocol, coupling a model that explicitly accounts for the bivalent nature of such interactions and the limited spatial distance over which such interactions can occur, to a SPR assay that provides more features in the generated data. Our approach allows the estimation of bivalent binding kinetics and the spatial extent over which antibodies and antigens can interact, while also providing substantially more robust fits to experimental data compared to classical bivalent ODE models. I will present our new modeling and parameter estimation approach, and demonstrate how it is being used to study interactions between antibodies and spike protein. I will also explain how we make the overall parameter estimation problem computationally feasible via the construction of a surrogate approximation to the (computationally-expensive) particle model. The latter enables fitting of model parameters via standard optimization approaches.

## Leo Darrigade : Modelling G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) compartmentalized signaling

- Mathematical Biology ( 86 Views )G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are membrane receptors that play a pivotal role in the regulation of reproduction and behavior in humans. Upon binding to specific ligands, they trigger a local cAMP production. Activated receptor are then internalized to different endosomal compartments where they can continue signaling before being recycled or destroyed. Recent studies showed that the different pools of cAMP have different effect on the cell.

In the first part of the talk, I will present a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) of intracellular signaling. The stochastic part of the model accounts for formation, coagulation, fragmentation and recycling of intracellular vesicles which contain the receptor, whereas the deterministic part of the model represents evolution of chemical reactions due to signaling activity of the receptor. We are interested in the existence of and convergence to a stationary measure. I will present different cases for which we were able to obtain results in this direction.

In the second part of the talk, I will present the numerical workflow (SBML, PEtab and PyPESTO) we use to fit ODEs model of GPCR signaling to longitudinal measure of chemical concentrations (BRET data).