## Galen Reeves : Non-asymptotic bounds for approximate message passing via Gaussian coupling

- Probability ( 0 Views )Approximate message passing (AMP) has emerged as a powerful framework for the design and analysis of iterative algorithms for high dimensional inference problems involving regression and low-rank matrix factorization. The basic form of an AMP algorithm consists of a recursion defined on a random matrix. Under suitable conditions, the distribution of this recursion can be well approximated by a Gaussian process whose mean and covariance are defined via a recursive process called state evolution. This talk will briefly summarize some of the key ideas in AMP (no background is assumed). I will then describe a new approach for analyzing these algorithms that constructs an explicit coupling between the AMP iterates and a Gaussian process, Under mild regularity conditions, this coupling argument provides simple and interpretable guarantees on the non-asymptotic behavior of AMP algorithms. Related work can be found in the arXiv papers: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.08225 and https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.15580

## Vadim Gorin : Six-vertex model in the rare corners regime

- Probability ( 0 Views )The six-vertex model, also known as the square-ice model, is one of the central and most studied systems of 2d statistical mechanics. It offers various combinatorial interpretations. One of them involves molecules of water on the square grid; another one deals with non-intersecting lattice paths, which can be also viewed as level lines of an integer-valued height function. Despite many efforts since the 1960s, the limit shapes for the height function are still unknown in general situations. However, we recently found ways to compute them in a degeneration, which leads to a low density of corners of paths (or, equivalently, of horizontal/vertical molecules of water). I will report on the progress in this direction emphasizing various unusual features: appearance of hyperbolic PDEs; discontinuities in densities; connections to random permutations.

## Ran Tao : Fluctuations of half-space KPZ: from 1/2 to 1/3

- Probability ( 0 Views )We study the half-space KPZ equation with a Neumann boundary condition, starting from stationary Brownian initial data. We derive a variance identity that links the fluctuations of the height function to the transversal fluctuations of a half-space polymer model. We then establish optimal fluctuation exponents for the height function in both the subcritical and critical regimes, along with corresponding estimates for the polymer endpoint. Based on a joint work with Yu Gu.

## Theo McKenzie : Eigenvalue rigidity for random regular graphs

- Probability ( 0 Views )Random regular graphs form a ubiquitous model for chaotic systems. However, the spectral properties of their adjacency matrices have proven difficult to analyze because of the strong dependence between different entries. In this talk, I will describe recent work that shows that despite this, the fluctuation of eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix are of the same order as for Gaussian matrices. This gives an optimal error term for Friedman's theorem that the second eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a random regular graph converges to the spectral radius of an infinite regular tree. Crucial is tight analysis of the Green??s function of the adjacency operator and an analysis of the change of the Green's function after a random edge switch. This is based on joint work with Jiaoyang Huang and Horng-Tzer Yau.

## Benjamin Seeger : Equations on the Wasserstein space and applications

- Probability ( 0 Views )The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of recent work involving differential equations posed on spaces of probability measures and their use in analyzing controlled multi-agent systems. The study of such systems has seen increased interest in recent years, due to their ubiquity in applications coming from macroeconomics, social behavior, and telecommunications. When the number of agents becomes large, the model can be formally replaced by one involving a mean-field description of the population, analogously to similar models in statistical physics. Justifying this continuum limit is often nontrivial and is sensitive to the type of stochastic noise influencing the population, i.e. idiosyncratic or systemic. We will describe settings for which the convergence to mean field stochastic control problems can be resolved through the analysis of a certain Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation posed on Wasserstein spaces. In particular, we develop new stability and regularity results for the equations. These allow for new convergence results for more general problems, for example, zero-sum stochastic differential games of mean-field type. We conclude with a discussion of some further problems for which the techniques for equations on Wasserstein space may be amenable.

## Tatiana Brailovskaya : Matrix superconcentration inequalities

- Probability ( 0 Views )One way to understand the concentration of the norm of a random matrix X with Gaussian entries is to apply a standard concentration inequality, such as the one for Lipschitz functions of i.i.d. standard Gaussian variables, which yields subgaussian tail bounds on the norm of X. However, as was shown by Tracy and Widom in 1990s, when the entries of X are i.i.d. the norm of X exhibits even sharper concentration. The phenomenon of a function of many i.i.d. variables having strictly smaller tails than those predicted by classical concentration inequalities is sometimes referred to as «superconcentration», a term originally dubbed by Chatterjee. I will discuss novel results that can be interpreted as superconcentration inequalities for the norm of X, where X is a Gaussian random matrix with independent entries and an arbitrary variance profile. We can also view our results as a nonhomogeneous extension of Tracy-Widom-type upper tail estimates for the norm of X.

## Amarjit Budhiraja : Invariant measures of the infinite Atlas model: domains of attraction, extremality, and equilibrium fluctuations.

- Probability ( 113 Views )The infinite Atlas model describes a countable system of competing Brownian particles where the lowest particle gets a unit upward drift and the rest evolve as standard Brownian motions. The stochastic process of gaps between the particles in the infinite Atlas model has a one parameter family {p(a), a > 0} of product form mutually singular stationary distributions. We say that an initial distribution of gaps is in the weak domain of attraction of the stationary measure p(a) if the time averaged laws of the stochastic process of the gaps, when initialized using that distribution, converge to p(a) weakly in the large time limit. We provide general sufficient conditions on the initial gap distribution of the Atlas particles for it to lie in the weak domain of attraction of p(a) for each a. Results on extremality and ergodicity of p(a) will be presented. Finally, I will describe some recent results on fluctuations of the Atlas model from inhomogeneous stationary profiles. This is based on joint work with Sayan Banerjee and Peter Rudzis.

## Haotian Gu : Universality and Phase Transitions of Holomorphic Multiplicative Chaos

- Probability ( 65 Views )The random distribution Holomorphic multiplicative chaos (HMC) with Gaussian inputs is recently introduced independently by Najnudel, Paquette, and Simm as a limiting object on the unit complex circle of characteristic polynomial of circular beta ensembles, and by Soundararajan and Zaman as an analogue of random multiplicative functions. In this talk, we will explore this rich connection between HMC and random matrix theory, number theory, and Gaussian multiplicative chaos. We will also discuss the regularity of this distribution, alongside the fractional moments and tightness of its Fourier coefficients (also referred to as secular coefficients). Furthermore, we introduce non-Gaussian HMC, and discuss the Gaussian universality and two phase transitions phenomenon in the fractional moments of its secular coefficients. A transition from global to local effect is observed, alongside an analysis of the critical local-global case. As a result, we unveil the regularity of some non-Gaussian HMC and tightness of their secular coefficients. Based on joint work with Zhenyuan Zhang.

## Manon Michel : Non-reversible Markov processes in particle systems

- Probability ( 61 Views )Recently, Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods based on non-reversible piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) are under growing attention, thanks to the increase in performance they usually bring. Beyond their numerical efficacy, the non-reversible and piecewise deterministic characteristics of these processes prompt interesting questions, regarding for instance ergodicity proof and convergence bounds. During this talk, I will particularly focus on the obtained results and open problems left while considering PDMP evolution of particle systems, both in an equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium setting. Hardcore particle systems have embodied a testbed of choice since the first implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo in the 50??s. Even today, the entropic barriers they exhibit are still resisting to the state-of-the-art MCMC sampling methods. During this talk, I will review the recent developments regarding sampling such systems and discuss the dynamical bottlenecks that are yet to be solved.

## Erik Bates : The Busemann process of (1+1)-dimensional directed polymers

- Probability ( 78 Views )Directed polymers are a statistical mechanics model for random growth. Their partition functions are solutions to a discrete stochastic heat equation. This talk will discuss the logarithmic derivatives of the partition functions, which are solutions to a discrete stochastic Burgers equation. Of interest is the success or failure of the ??one force-one solution principle? for this equation. I will reframe this question in the language of polymers, and share some surprising results that follow. Based on joint work with Louis Fan and Timo Seppäläinen.

## Leonid Petrov : Lax equations for integrable stochastic particle systems

- Probability ( 93 Views )Integrable stochastic particle systems in one space dimension, like the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process (TASEP), have been studied for over 50 years (introduced simultaneously in biology and mathematics in 1969-70). They strike a balance between being simple enough to be mathematically tractable and complicated enough to describe many interesting phenomena. Many natural questions about these systems can be generalized by introducing multiple parameters. The interplay between these parameters is powered by the Yang-Baxter equation, which brings new intriguing results to the well-traveled territory. In particular, I will discuss new Lax-type equations for the Markov semigroups of the TASEP and its relatives. Based on a joint work with Axel Saenz.

## Joe Jackson : The convergence problem in mean field control

- Probability ( 123 Views )This talk will be about the convergence problem in mean field control (MFC), i.e. the challenge of rigorously justifying the convergence of certain "symmetric" $N$-particle stochastic control problems towards their mean field counterparts. On the one hand, this convergence problem is already well-understood from a qualitative perspective, thanks to powerful probabilistic techniques based on compactness. On the other hand, quantitative results (i.e. rates of convergence) are more difficult to obtain, in large part because the value function of the mean field problem (which is also the solution to a certain Hamilton-Jacobi equation on the Wasserstein space) may fail to be $C^1$, even if all the data is smooth. After giving an overview of the convergence problem, I will discuss the results of two recent joint works with Cardaliaguet, Daudin, Delarue, and Souganidis, in which we use some ideas from the theory of viscosity solutions to overcome this lack of regularity and obtain rates of convergence of the $N$-particle value functions towards the value function of the corresponding MFC problem.

## Corrine Yap : Reconstructing Random Pictures

- Probability ( 97 Views )Reconstruction problems ask whether or not it is possible to uniquely build a discrete structure from the collection of its substructures of a fixed size. This question has been explored in a wide range of settings, most famously with graphs and the resulting Graph Reconstruction Conjecture due to Kelly and Ulam, but also including geometric sets, jigsaws, and abelian groups. In this talk, we'll consider the reconstruction of random pictures (n-by-n grids with binary entries) from the collection of its k-by-k subgrids and prove a nearly-sharp threshold for k = k(n). Our main proof technique is an adaptation of the Peierls contour method from statistical physics. Joint work with Bhargav Narayanan.

## Max Xu : Random multiplicative functions and applications

- Probability ( 262 Views )Random multiplicative functions are probabilistic models for multiplicative arithmetic functions, such as Dirichlet characters or the Liouville function. In this talk, I will first quickly give an overview of the area, and then focus on some of the recent works on proving central limit theorems, connections to additive combinatorics, as well as some other deterministic applications. Part of the talk is based on joint work with Soundararajan, with Harper and Soundararajan (in progress) and with Angelo and Soundararajan (in progress).

## Jimmy He : Shift invariance of half space integrable models

- Probability ( 100 Views )I'll discuss work on shift invariance in a half space setting. These are non-trivial symmetries allowing certain observables of integrable models with a boundary to be shifted while preserving their joint distribution. The starting point is the colored stochastic six vertex model in a half space, from which we obtain results on the asymmetric simple exclusion process, as well as for the beta polymer through a fusion procedure, both in a half space setting. An application to the asymptotics of a half space analogue of the oriented swap process is also given.

## Mariana Olvera-Cravioto : Opinion dynamics on complex networks: From mean-field limits to sparse approximations

- Probability ( 98 Views )In a world of polarized opinions on many cultural issues, we propose a model for the evolution of opinions on a large complex network. Our model is akin to the popular Friedkin-Johnsen model, with the added complexity of vertex-dependent media signals and confirmation bias, both of which help explain some of the most important factors leading to polarization. The analysis of the model is done on a directed random graph, capable of replicating highly inhomogeneous real-world networks with various degrees of assortativity and community structure. Our main results give the stationary distribution of opinions on the network, including explicitly computable formulas for the conditional means and variances for the various communities. Our results span the entire range of inhomogeneous random graphs, from the sparse regime, where the expected degrees are bounded, all the way to the dense regime, where a graph having n vertices has order n^2 edges.

## Zack Bezemek : Large Deviations and Importance Sampling for Weakly Interacting Diffusions

- Probability ( 89 Views )We consider an ensemble of N interacting particles modeled by a system of N stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The coefficients of the SDEs are taken to be such that as N approaches infinity, the system undergoes Kac??s propagation of chaos, and is well-approximated by the solution to a McKean-Vlasov Equation. Rare but possible deviations of the behavior of the particles from this limit may reflect a catastrophe, and computing the probability of such rare events is of high interest in many applications. In this talk, we design an importance sampling scheme which allows us to numerically compute statistics related to these rare events with high accuracy and efficiency for any N. Standard Monte Carlo methods behave exponentially poorly as N increases for such problems. Our scheme is based on subsolutions of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) Equation on Wasserstein Space which arises in the theory of mean-field control. This HJB Equation is seen to be connected to the large deviations rate function for the empirical measure on the ensemble of particles. We identify conditions under which our scheme is provably asymptotically optimal in N in the sense of log-efficiency. We also provide evidence, both analytical and numerical, that with sufficient regularity of the solution to the HJB Equation, our scheme can have vanishingly small relative error as N increases.

## Jake Madrid : Stochastic Extinction events in Large Populations Prior to Entering the Metastable State

- Probability ( 102 Views )We will explore the role of demographic stochasticity in triggering extinction events in models of large finite populations. While prior works have focused on large fluctuations from quasi-stationary distributions, we instead consider extinction events occurring before entering a metastable state. Since such extinction events require only slight deviations from the mean-field trajectories, we can derive the approximating extinction probability PDE with a modified Robin-type boundary condition. We then investigate the utility of this approximation by comparing to the Lotka-Volterra model as well as the Lotka-Volterra model with logistic growth.

## Zachary Bezemek : Interacting particle systems in multiscale environments: asymptotic analysis

- Probability ( 138 Views )This talk is an overview of my thesis work, which consists of 3 projects exploring the effect of multiscale structure on a class of interacting particle systems called weakly interacting diffusions. In the absence of multiscale structure, we have a collection of N particles, with the dynamics of each being described by the solution to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) whose coefficients depend on that particle's state and the empirical measure of the full particle configuration. It is well known in this setting that as N approaches infinity, the particle system undergoes the ``propagation of chaos,'' and its corresponding sequence of empirical measures converges to the law of the solution to an associated McKean-Vlasov SDE. Meanwhile, in our multiscale setting, the coefficients of the SDEs may also depend on a process evolving on a timescale of order 1/\epsilon faster than the particles. As \epsilon approaches 0, the effect of the fast process on the particles' dynamics becomes deterministic via stochastic homogenization. We study the interplay between homogenization and the propagation of chaos via establishing large deviations and moderate deviations results for the multiscale particles' empirical measure in the combined limit as N approaches infinity and \epsilon approaches 0. Along the way, we derive rates of homogenization for slow-fast McKean-Vlasov SDEs.

## Matt Junge : Ballistic Annihilation

- Probability ( 122 Views )In the late 20th century, statistical physicists introduced a chemical reaction model called ballistic annihilation. In it, particles are placed randomly throughout the real line and then proceed to move at independently sampled velocities. Collisions result in mutual annihilation. Many results were inferred by physicists, but it wasn??t until recently that mathematicians joined in. I will describe my trajectory through this model. Expect tantalizing open questions.