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# Bruce Pitman : Where Are You Going To Go When The Volcano Blows?

We discuss one approach to determining the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology employed includes large-scale numerical simulations, field data reporting the volume and runout of flow events, and a detailed statistical analysis of uncertainties in the modeling and data. The probability of a catastrophic event impacting a locale is calculated, together with a estimate of the uncertainty in that calculation. By a careful use of simulations, a hazard map for an entire region can be determined. The calculation can be turned around quickly, and the methodology can be applied to other hazard scenarios.

**Category**: Applied Math and Analysis**Duration**: 01:34:26**Date**: May 4, 2015 at 4:25 PM**Views**: 96-
**Tags:**seminar, Applied Math And Analysis Seminar

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