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Marc Ryser et al. : A modeling study of sex-specific immunization for HPV

This is joint work with David Herzog, Kevin McGoff, David Sivakoff and Evan Myers. We develop a dynamic random graph model to capture the heterogeneous structure of adolescent sexual networks. Coupled to a stochastic model of infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), the network model is used to investigate the effect of different HPV vaccination strategies. The results obtained with the stochastic agent-based model are confirmed and extended by means of a deterministic mean-field model amenable to rigorous analysis. Using parameter values reflecting the current situation in the US, we show that for a large class of cost-benefit measures it is more effective to start implementing male-vaccination than to extend female vaccination further. In view of the stagnating female and low male coverage in the US, our results demonstrate the necessity for empirical assessment of coverage-dependent marginal administration costs of the vaccine.

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