## Antonio Auffinger : The Parisi Formula: duality and equivalence of ensembles.

- Probability ( 200 Views )In 1979, G. Parisi predicted a variational formula for the thermodynamic limit of the free energy in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model and described the role played by its minimizer, called the Parisi measure. This remarkable formula was proven by Talagrand in 2006. In this talk I will explain a new representation of the Parisi functional that finally connects the temperature parameter and the Parisi measure as dual parameters. Based on joint-works with Wei-Kuo Chen.

## Ivan Corwin : Brownian Gibbs line ensembles.

- Probability ( 167 Views )The Airy line ensemble arises in scaling limits of growth models, directed polymers, random matrix theory, tiling problems and non-intersecting line ensembles. This talk will mainly focus on the "non-intersecting Brownian Gibbs property" for this infinite ensemble of lines. Roughly speaking, the measure on lines is invariant under resampling a given curve on an interval according to a Brownian Bridge conditioned to not intersect the above of below labeled curves. This property leads to the proof of a number of previously conjectured results about the top line of this ensemble. We will also briefly touch on the KPZ line ensemble, which arises as the scaling limit of a diffusion defined by the Doob-h transform of the quantum Toda lattice Hamiltonian. The top labeled curve of this KPZ ensemble is the fixed time solution to the famous Kardar-Parisi-Zhang stochastic PDE. This line ensemble has a "softer" Brownian Gibbs property in which resampled Brownian Bridges may cross the lines above and below, but at exponential energetic cost. This is based on joint work with Alan Hammond.

## Mykhaylo Shkolnikov : Particles interacting through their hitting times: neuron firing, supercooling and systemic risk

- Probability ( 140 Views )I will discuss a class of particle systems that serve as models for supercooling in physics, neuron firing in neuroscience and systemic risk in finance. The interaction between the particles falls into the mean-field framework pioneered by McKean and Vlasov in the late 1960s, but many new phenomena arise due to the singularity of the interaction. The most striking of them is the loss of regularity of the particle density caused by the the self-excitation of the system. In particular, while initially the evolution of the system can be captured by a suitable Stefan problem, the following irregular behavior necessitates a more robust probabilistic approach. Based on joint work with Sergey Nadtochiy.

## Pascal Maillard : Interval fragmentations with choice

- Probability ( 132 Views )Points fall into the unit interval according to a certain rule, splitting it up into fragments. An example rule is the following: at each step, two points are randomly drawn from the unit interval and the one that falls into the smaller (or larger) interval is discarded, while the other one is kept. This process is inspired by the so-called "power of choice" paradigm originating in the computer science literature on balanced load allocation models. The question of interest is how much the rule affects the geometry of the point cloud. With Elliot Paquette [1] we introduced a general version of this interval fragmentation model and showed that the empirical distribution of rescaled interval lengths converges almost surely to a deterministic probability measure. I will report on this work as well as on work in progress [2] where we show that the empirical measure of the points converges almost surely to the uniform distribution. The proofs involve techniques from stochastic approximation, non-linear integro-differential equations, ergodic theory for Markov processes and perturbations of semigroups on L^p spaces, amongst other things. [1] Maillard, P., & Paquette, E. (2016). Choices and intervals. Israel Journal of Mathematics, 212(1), 337Â?384. [2] Maillard, P., & Paquette, E. (in preparation). Interval fragmentations with choice: equidistribution and the evolution of tagged fragments

## Wesley Pegden : The fractal nature of the Abelian Sandpile

- Probability ( 124 Views )The Abelian Sandpile is a simple diffusion process on the integer lattice, in which configurations of chips disperse according to a simple rule: when a vertex has at least 4 chips, it can distribute one chip to each neighbor. Introduced in the statistical physics community in the 1980s, the Abelian sandpile exhibits striking fractal behavior which long resisted rigorous mathematical analysis (or even a plausible explanation). We now have a relatively robust mathematical understanding of this fractal nature of the sandpile, which involves surprising connections between integer superharmonic functions on the lattice, discrete tilings of the plane, and Apollonian circle packings. In this talk, we will survey our work in this area, and discuss avenues of current and future research.

## Carl Mueller : Nonuniqueness for some stochastic PDE

- Probability ( 120 Views )The superprocess or Dawson-Watanabe process is one of the most intensively studied stochastic processes of the last quarter century. It arises as a limit of population processes, and includes information about the physical location of individuals. Usually the superprocess is measure valued, but In one dimension it has a density that satisfies a parabolic stochastic PDE. For a long time uniqueness for this equation was unknown. In joint work with Barlow, Mytnik, and Perkins, we show that nonuniquess holds for the superprocess equation and several related equations.

## Benedek Valko : Point processes generated by carousels

- Probability ( 112 Views )For several classical matrix models the joint density of the eigenvalues can be written as an expression involving a Vandermonde determinant raised to the power of 1, 2 or 4. Most of these examples have beta-generalizations where this exponent is replaced by a parameter beta>0. In recent years the point process limits of various beta ensembles have been derived. The limiting processes are usually described as the spectrum of certain stochastic operators or with the help of a coupled system of SDEs. In the bulk beta Hermite case (which is the generalization of GUE) there is a nice geometric construction of the point process involving a Brownian motion in the hyperbolic plane, this is the Brownian carousel. Surprisingly, there are a number of other limit processes that have carousel like representation. We will discuss a couple of examples and some applications of these new representations. Joint with Balint Virag.

## Paul Tupper : A Framework for Modelling and Simulating Systems Satisfying Detailed Balance

- Probability ( 108 Views )We propose a framework for modelling stochastic systems which satisfy detailed balance (or in other terminology, time-reversibility). Rather than specifying the dynamics through a state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients, we specify an equilibrium probability density and a state-dependent diffusion coefficient. We argue that our framework is more natural from the modelling point of view and has a distinct advantage in situations where either the equilibrium probability density or the diffusion coefficient is discontinuous. We introduce a numerical method for simulating dynamics in our framework that samples from the equilibrium probability density exactly and elegantly handles discontinuities in the coefficients. This is joint work with Xin Yang.

## Jim Nolen : Normal approximation for a random resistor network

- Probability ( 106 Views )I will describe a central limit theorem for the rate of energy dissipation in a random network of resistors. In the continuum setting the model is an elliptic PDE with random conductivity coefficient. In the large network limit, homogenization occurs and the random dissipation rate can be approximated well by a normal random variable having the same mean and variance. I'll give error estimates for this approximation in total variation norm which have optimal scaling. The analysis is based on Stein's method and a recent result of Sourav Chatterjee.

## Rick Durrett : Diffusion limit for the partner model at the critical value

- Probability ( 104 Views )The partner model is an SIS epidemic in a population with random formation and dissolution of partnerships, and disease transmission only occurs within partnerships. Foxall, Edwards, and van den Driessche found the critical value and studied the subcritical and supercritical regimes. Recently Foxall has shown that (if there are enough initial infecteds) then the critical model survives for time \(O(N^{1/2})\). Here we improve that result by proving the convergence of \(i_N(t)=I(tN^{1/2})/N^{1/2}\) to a limiting diffusion. We do this by showing that in the first O(1), this four dimensional process collapses to two dimensions: the number of *SI* and *II* partnerships are constant multiples of the the number of infected singles \(I_t\). The other variable \(Y_t\), the total number of singles, behaves like an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on a time scale O(1) and averages out of the limit theorem for \(i_N(t)\).
This is joint work with Anirban Basak and Eric Foxall.

## Corrine Yap : Reconstructing Random Pictures

- Probability ( 97 Views )Reconstruction problems ask whether or not it is possible to uniquely build a discrete structure from the collection of its substructures of a fixed size. This question has been explored in a wide range of settings, most famously with graphs and the resulting Graph Reconstruction Conjecture due to Kelly and Ulam, but also including geometric sets, jigsaws, and abelian groups. In this talk, we'll consider the reconstruction of random pictures (n-by-n grids with binary entries) from the collection of its k-by-k subgrids and prove a nearly-sharp threshold for k = k(n). Our main proof technique is an adaptation of the Peierls contour method from statistical physics. Joint work with Bhargav Narayanan.